Weather Update: Kerala Prepares for Early Monsoon Arrival as Rainfall Begins; IMD: Monsoon to Cover Maharashtra in 8-10 Days
Weather Update: Pune City Likely To Get Light Spell Of Rain Till June 17
Kerala, May, 2024 – The eagerly anticipated onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala is imminent, with favorable conditions continuing to support its arrival by May 30.
Currently, areas of Kerala are already experiencing rainfall, setting the stage for the official onset of the monsoon season, according to Anupam Kashyapi, Head, Retd.(Scientist G), IMD, Pune,Maharashtra
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) confirms that while no further progress in the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) was observed today, further advancement is likely over South Arabian Sea, the rest of the Maldives, Comorin, Lakshadweep, and areas of the Southwest, Central, and Northeast Bay of Bengal, as well as the northeastern states.
Starting June 2, rain with thunder and lightning activity is expected to increase over the southern and eastern parts of the country, indicating pre-monsoon rain, followed by the gradual progress of the monsoon.
Onset in Goa, Southern Maharashtra, and Pune
Preliminary analysis suggests that by around June 2, both branches of the monsoon are likely to gain strength. Early monsoon onset is anticipated over Goa by June 3, South Sindhudurg by June 4, and even Pune by June 6. The rain activity from the south of the state supports these projections.
Monsoon Onset Over Kerala
Today, the much-awaited monsoon onset occurred over 85% of Kerala and Northeast India, two days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1. The NLM now passes through 13°N/60°E, 11°N/70°E, Amini, Kannur, Coimbatore, Kanyakumari, 8.5°N/80°E, 16°N/87°E, Agartala, Dhubri, and 27°N/89.5°E.
“The normal date of the onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1. But we are expecting an advanced monsoon, and within 24 hours, we are expecting the monsoon to reach Kerala. Once the monsoon arrives in Kerala, it takes eight to ten days to cover Maharashtra, especially Mumbai,” said an IMD official.
Long-Range Forecast
The IMD has issued a long-range forecast predicting above-normal rainfall for this season, a much-needed respite from the severe heatwave conditions currently affecting the country. In 2023, the country received 94% of its long-period average rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September).
The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland marks a significant transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season. This is crucial for the Indian agricultural economy, especially for kharif crops. India has three cropping seasons—summer, kharif, and rabi. The above-normal rainfall forecast is expected to benefit agricultural activities across the country.
Above-Normal Rainfall Expected
“The Southwest Monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long-period average with a model error of 4%. Thus, above-normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole,” stated the IMD. This forecast follows predictions of above-normal rain this monsoon, driven by favorable La Nina conditions expected to set in between August and September.
Heatwave Update
The IMD also indicated that the current heatwave across India is expected to decline from May 30, although a severe heatwave will persist over northwest India for the next three days.
As the monsoon progresses, it brings relief from the scorching summer temperatures, providing much-needed rain and cooler weather across the regions it covers.
